BEIJING: A seminar focused on global trade readjustment amid the current trade turmoil was held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday as part of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Public Forum 2025.
Ju Jiandong, a professor with China’s Tsinghua University, presented the main results of a quantitative analysis done by his team of the effects of the U.S. tariffs on global trade structures. The analysis predicts that the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” would lead to a 3.4 percent decline in global trade by the end of 2025, with U.S. imports and exports falling by 19 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
At the same time, the U.S. unilateral tariffs may trigger a vicious cycle of retaliation measures and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, Ju noted.
Luz Maria de la Mora, director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at UN Trade and Development, said global trade uncertainty has been on the rise since 2016, due to factors such as heightened geopolitical tensions. Trade costs have gone up, affecting the interests of developing countries, including the least developed countries.
De la Mora called on relevant parties to strengthen trade resilience by formulating rules, restoring the dispute-settlement mechanism, negotiating free trade agreements, and boosting confidence in long-term investment.
The participants agreed that it is crucial to uphold a rules-based multilateral trading system and enhance the stability and predictability of the international trade environment amid the current global trade turbulence.
As a flagship outreach event of the WTO, this year’s Public Forum opened on Wednesday with a focus on digital trade. Featuring nearly 90 sessions on various topics, the event drew over 4,000 participants from governments, businesses, academia and various sectors of society.
